It’s what we all wait for either from April to April, the Superbowl to April, or, for the thousands that annually fill out those funny little brackets to win their office pool despite following an ‘eeiny-meeny-miny-moe’ logic,… March to April.
Let me justify my position. Just a humble fan. And that’s ultimately it. I’m a Carolina guy. But, I have the ability to look at things from a neutral perspective. I am sure…No, completely certain… that Phil Ford is the greatest player to ever hoop in a Carolina uniform. But, I also respect the reality that the two greatest players to play in the ACC were Ralph Sampson and David Thompson, arguably of course. I worship Dean Smith as one of the painfully few great coaches to ever lead student-athletes to success in every sense of the word. But, I can just as easily see why John Wooden, Lew Alcindor, and Bill Walton are also names usually preceded by ‘the great….”
With a few more weeks in the season for championship grumblings to percolate, the SP is here to break down who we think are the top teams that will be left around to fight it out in New Orleans, and the top teams who will have weaknesses of an inevitable early round upset. (I say top teams because…well, you didn’t expect VCU to play Butler in the Final Four, either) So, here are our fakers…
Fakers
Like I said, we’ll start here with the top ranked teams with too many flaws for a 6-game late-season run and then, check out our breakdown of the championship contenders in the second part to this edition of The State of Play in the coming days.
To start breaking down which top-ranked teams will lose out early, let’s look at who’s on top right now. Here’s the latest NCAA men’s basketball top-ten according to ESPN.com,
1. Kentucky
2. Syracuse
3. Kansas
4. Duke
5. Michigan State
6. North Carolina
7. Missouri
8. Marquette
9. Baylor
10. Ohio State
Now, I’m a sincere believer in luck. No, no, no, I’m not talking about Cinderella stories. And not the type of luck Bill Self ran into when John Calipari threw out free throws as a necessity in the ’08 run or Duke’s ability to find a mid-major to compete against in the national championship game in ‘10. Well, actually that is sort of the luck I’m talking… In a nutshell, I find it hard not to believe the national champion comes from a completely random selection of one of the top 5-8 teams depending on the spread of talent around the league and/or the distance between the top 1, 2, or 3 and everyone else. Like, say, UNC and Illinois versus the rest of the field in 2005? Generally, it takes luck on the part of one of the top teams to find themselves in the right position to win the tournament. Luck: something that dictates seeding, region, match-up, ball bounces, anything. Now, I’m not saying those are the only teams that could win. Take the N.C. States and Georgetowns of the world. Look at 2005, even. I’ve always thought my Heels got help from Chris Paul hitting Julius Hodge in his jewels in the ACC tournament…(Wake was the only team better than UNC that year, argue if you will) But, more than likely, this is the case.
I’ll keep this short. So, at first glance, the best ‘fakers’ to me are #2 Syracuse, #5 Michigan State, and #7 Missouri. Okay, okay, okay…I’ll give it to you, MSU and Mizzou might not be a surprise with their recent struggles, but less than a week ago all of these 3 teams were locks for 2-seeds at worst. Well, except for Syracuse and maybe that does catch a few off-guard.
Syracuse is lean, quick, athletic, and last, but certainly not least, well coached. On the downside, they’re pretty small and, let’s be honest, they really don’t have too many impressive wins. They only average 35.5 rebounds a game, leaving them in 117th place in the NCAA. Coupled with this, their inability to put up top field-goal percentages will ruin them on offensive put-backs when matched up against a big team that can keep pace with the Orangemen guards, like Ohio State. A question for thought and my own personal speculation (because I have this website as a mouthpiece), Are they over-ranked at 2? Probably….Now, now, I applaud anyone who can go undefeated throughout the early part of the season and maintain few losses moving into the latter part, but Murray State is kinda like that too and I’m not putting much money on them this year, personally. Face it, the Big East is bad and only getting worse. Syracuse is talented, I’ll grant you. But the defending national champions out of the Big East, with all due respect, was more of a Cinderella story than a powerhouse last year, and has since fallen off, comparatively. Yes, ‘Cuse has quality wins. With a 29-1 record, Syracuse has beaten a then #9 Florida by 4, #11 Georgetown by 3 in OT, and #20 Marquette by 7. But, those aren’t very large margins and all those were home games. Their road record leaves much to be desired too with a loss at #9 NotreDame and an eeked out win by 1 at an overrated #18 Louisville. I’m not saying they won’t win the national championship, because they are a good team and have been successful (but, mainly because stranger things have happened during March Madness…like people taking a win against Butler in the finals seriously). But, if I were an Orange fan, I’d be concerned about the cracks in the armor.
Missouri and Michigan State are more similar to each other than Syracuse; they both came on strong late in the season and, with the passing week, they’ve both dropped a game or two. My fear is that it will only get worse for one of these teams. Missouri’s chances at a final four are imaginable, not likely, but imaginable. Their chances at a championship…one in a million, to me. The reason they won’t win a championship is Frank Haith, plain and simple. He isn’t a terrible coach or anything, though. He’s had mediocre success. But, he’s a little too new to the tournament to be a top contender…While at Miami, Haith only had one appearance in the tournament, grabbing a single win to help advance the Canes to the second round in 2008. Success is objective during the regular season because every game is theoretically as important as the last. Coaching in the league just a single season can give a new coach the mentality he needs to wage another regular season. But, the tournament is different. Hall of Famers take decades to get their first taste. So, don’t expect an average amateur to stumble into a national championship. It just doesn't happen...
Finally, the man/team that never misses March, Tom Izzo/MSU. And rightfully so…If Izzo were to follow in Bruce Pearl’s footsteps in wearing his school’s colors, Sparty’s captain would look like a lot like a sneaky old leprechaun. Am I right?
Well, I can’t stress enough that of the ‘fakers’ I see inside the top seven, Izzo’s team looks to be the most serious about ring hunting. Izzo has a way of doing exactly what it takes to get every drop of potential out of his boys during the tournament. But, let’s be fair…this team’s expectations weren’t high at the start of the season. The off-season took a toll on the Spartans. Three years ago, playing in the national championship against UNC, 3 young stars stood out: Kalin Lucas, Delvon Roe, and Korie Lucious. These guys pulled a large part of the weight on this developing team until they all went separate ways this summer via graduation, retirement, or transfer. Personally, I’m not counting them out of a Final Four run just yet because of the big man in the middle who should be considered for POY, Draymond Green. Then again, the post-season blues usually find the teams that have battled hard all season until the gas tank runs dry in an unexpected round. This team plays hard and outmatches anyone in heart, but I’d say their chance may have come and gone with the departure of the three big stars during the off-season.
Well, that's my take on it. Find us again in the coming days for Part 2 of TSOP: The Contenders.
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