Old Man Basketball Journal, Week Two

I read somewhere that the chance of success goes up significantly (read: I can't remember the number and don't feel like making one up but remember I was impressed by the percentage stated). In an effort to increase my chances of succeeding at basketball (or becoming an old man) I will chronicle the events that took place on a basketball court every Monday night. Some people do Lent journals or track their progress in the weight room, running, or whatever habbit they have adopted. I will show the unexpected stories and life lessons learned from the perspective of a former scholarship athlete who is now woefully out of shape

After the physical diaster of last week, I was feeling some butterflies in my stomach when driving to the gym this week. I did have an advantage as compared to week one: I was not on a 104 week lay off.

I got there and shot around while the first game was playing. It went into "overtime" which means the teams were so full of fat men that neither could get the necessary point advantage to win the game. Eventually the organizer claimed the next point would win. The good news was I had plenty of time to shoot on the side baskets. The bad news was I did not get any better at shooting with the extra time. After a series of back rim misses and a handful of close range swishes I took a three ball. It was the similar result to last week's three point attempt. #airball I stopped shooting and waited for my turn.

The first game went well. By well, I mean I did not feel the desire to throw up. I paced myself up and down the court. Rather than taking long full strides that eat up energy like YouTube eats up mobile phone bandwith, I took short choppy steps and miandered down the court like I was an old man who had bad knees. I even threw in a fake limp here and there so I could fit in better.

The first possession of the game I went to the left block. During my shoot around I practiced some low post footwork. I am typically pretty good in the post. I can drop step and square up. I have trouble with the quickest moves that go across the lane or that quick jump step that is really a travel. Either way, I caught the ball expecting to use a little shimmy left then turn back to the right. The left step was fine, but the step back right was a diaster. I planted and my heel slipped. I lost my balance and leaned heavily on the defender who signaled for a travel and I threw the ball to the guard on the wing.

The floor was really dusty. I have no idea how these guys didn't hurt themselves. People were slipping the first two games before they mopped the playing service. I was expecting a myriad of pulled groins and hernias. Can a guy get a hernia from slipping on a basketball floor? I know old guys get hernias all the time, this has to be a way they do it.

We lost the game. I went on a three shot score streak towards the end of the game. I found my mid range jump shot, started posting at the elbow. The guards would run screens off the top or back cut. I'd turn and shoot or get my guy to commit one way and take him to the hole for a lay up on the other. Plus, these guys love to run around and cut. Whenever I played pick up ball, mostly the guy who dribbled it down shot it or made one pass and that guy shot it. Now that I think about it, no wonder I was exhausted the first week. These old men never stop moving!

The second game I felt more confident so I popped out onto the wing. There was a pregnant polevaulter's success chance that I would shoot the ball. I passed after feigning a drive and repositioned my self on the low block. Several trips down the court I caught the ball in the post, not fumbling it, I might add. That was a big improvement from week one. I'd pass out or turn and shoot. I was knocking down baseline jumpers and went strong with the left hand on a drop step.

The second game was closer and we led for most of it. However towards the end of the game the other team went on a barrage of three bombs and took the lead. They ended up winning by 4. Yet, my offensive game was complete when popped out to the wing, looked the defended dead in the eye and pulled the trigger. #swish There was no serious thought that it would go in, but I had missed so badly on the previous three point attempts that I figured the law of averages had to be on my side.

The defensive game couldn't be better. Well, I could be able to rise up higher on rebounds, but I have blocked someone every game. Twice I have thrown it off the back wall. I'm beginning to think these old men have not played with a shot block recently. They body the defender all the way to the lane and throw up a guarded lay up. I don't let them get a body. Usually I let them past me or come from the help side then jump up and smack the ball. Next week I'll just catch it.

But my absolute favorite this week was a guy who went up for a fast break lay up, and I tracked him down. He released the ball low and in front of him, so I had to wait until it got hire up on the glass. Unfortunately it hit the backboard low and on the way up. Nonetheless, I picked it off the side of the square and threw it backwards. They called goaltending, but sometimes in a pick up game it's good for the opponents to know what they can and cannot do.

Lessons learned this week: The high post offense works, my defense is sound, and I still haven't hit the rim on a three point attempt.

Old Man Basketball Journal, Week One

I read somewhere that the chance of success goes up significantly (read: I can't remember the number and don't feel like making one up but remember I was impressed by the percentage stated). In an effort to increase my chances of succeeding at basketball (or becoming an old man) I will chronicle the events that took place on a basketball court every Monday night. Some people do Lent journals or track their progress in the weight room, running, or whatever habbit they have adopted. I will show the unexpected stories and life lessons learned from the perspective of a former scholarship athlete who is now woefully out of shape.

Last Monday night I engaged in basketball with some men between the ages of 25-50. Mixed in were a handful of varstity basketball players. I hadn't played in over two years. That is an approximation because I cannot remember the last time I played. I think it was two years ago because for the last two years I have been teaching school, and I know there is no way I have played during that time. The only times in the past two years I would have had a chance to play would have been when I traveled home for Christmas where a bunch of old teammates and players past from my school gather and play between 8-12 at night. I purposely did not take athletic shoes home so I wouldn't be able to play.

So I look back to anytime before then and a smattering of outdoor pick up games and church league ball. I remember being in great shape, working out, and being able to run as fast and jump as high as I had when I was in college. Plus I put on ten pounds so I was tougher through the lane. I dominated the old men and baptists who played in the league. I tipped the ball, one game, at the top of the key and took it the other way by myself. I threw it down, and the uptight referree/commissioner of the league blew the whistle before I landed. He T'd me up for dunking. I smirked and ran down the to the other side of the court where the whole time he was warning me not to get another technical because I would be thrown out of his elite league... the league was not elite and nor did he say so. But his confidence that I wanted to play in his league at all costs certainly insinuated that.

A game later I was playing on defense and got called for an over the back. I dropped an f-bomb because I did not have self control and thought my ability afforded me the right to cuss in a league that gave people technicals for dunking. It wasn't very loud and I am pretty sure only three people on the court heard it: me, my the guy I jumped over, and the Wizard of T's. The whistle blew, everyone looked around to see what was going on, "who said it?!" He repeated his question to which two players, one from each team repsonded "who said what?"

He was in a precariouss position because being the legalist he was, no way could he tell us what that mysterious person said. So now there was a mysterious person uttering a mysterious word. He explained it was a cuss word that started with the letter 'f', but he was reluctant to tell us what it started with. I raised my hand and owned it. He then once again warned me to not get another technical. Our team's captain protested that no one else heard it and he didn't know who said it, so how could he call it. The other team kind of agreed.

Later that game, I was face guarding the opponent's best player. They were older men between 40-50, clearly knew how to play, but they were losing a step. He was all elbows and knees trying to chip me wherever he could. Finally, I cut a pass off at the top of the key, elbows and knees was in tow. I went up for the lay up, and would have dunked it if I were allowed. But I went up high because I didn't want elbows and knees to get any ideas. He did, and that bastard undercut me, rolled up on my ankle, and knocked me into the wall. "G-D!" But I didn't say G-D. I took the Lord's name in vain in from of the Wizard of technicals right after he told me not to cuss.

Not only was I legitimately hurt, I was pissed that elbows and knees undercut me like the past his prime bitch he was. I hit the concrete floor with my hand because it seemed like breaking my hand might make my ankle better. I tried to get up but I fell down and then got up on one leg and hopped to the bench. The Wizard decided not to give me a T, and I decided not to punch elbows and knee. I think that was the last time I played pick up basketball.

This week I played two games. I had the opportunity to play them back to back, but I passed because I thought I was going to vomit. Not only could I not move quick enough with the ball to be any sort of effective, I couldn't move without the ball. By the end of the game and several trips walking up and down the court I got that really hot overheated feeling, my neck started to sweat and my stomach dropped. I let my older brother play in my stead. He is as a good athlete as I am, but he has been out of shape longer then I have. Except now he is in sneaky good shape.

He drained threes from the corner, step back jumpers, went to the wrack, and played defense. Afterwards he told me he could have run one more but would've felt it the next day. He played a total of three games, I played two. His team was 2-1. Mine was 0-2. He scored 40% of his teams points. I think I had 15%. Oh, and I airballed my only three. I was lucky I could lift my hands above my head to shoot it, at that point, though.

The worst part was I invited him. That SoB (does that mean I am talking bad about my mother) came, saw, and conquered. Not only could I not play, I was being shown up by my older brother who I invited. Not to mention this was the first time I played with this new group of guys and kind of invite myself the way a new kid invites himself somewhere hoping people will like him.

Lessons for this week: little brothers will always be little brothers; don't take two years off between pick up basketball; being old sucks

The Best and Worse from the First Weekend of the NCAA Tourny

The first weekend of the NCAA basketball tournament is an absolute blast. You have 32 games over a 36 hour span and then over the next 36 hours you have 16 games. That's 48 games in 72 hours! (That match could be wrong.) It grabs the whole country and gives a lot of well people a lot of two day flu's. This weekend has come and gone but not without its great moments and its not so great moments. We here at the Sports Party decided to share with our highlights and lowlights from the weekend.


Highlights
Mitch- My highlight for the weekend was watching a miler on my track team PR and rank in the top three in the nation in the mile. But in regards to the NCAAT my biggest highlight was wathcing Shaka Smart lose. There are three kinds of winners: Those who love to win, those who hate to lose, and those who take joy in watching others lose. While not entirely sure where I fall on this spectrum in general, I loved watching Smart lose. I don't like his schtick. I don't like his height. I don't like his clothes or how tight everything fits. Maybe he had a great run last year and this year his team made it through the first round, but something about him screams "phony!" I get the same feeling about him that I do about Jim Tressel, Urban Meyer, Gene Chizick, and that guy who made the KONY 2012 video. It's the exact opposite feeling I get about Nick Saban. It's weird, each seems like a giant a-hole, but only one seems like a giant a-hole who wins without gimmicks. 




Pat- The battle between the ‘Noles and Bearcats was a great one. And here’s my proclamation: It was EXACTLY WHAT WAS EXPECTED. Did you watch Cincinnati play on Friday? This team might be the least talented team left, other than Ohio and Xavier, but they have a much better chance in beating Ohio State this weekend than Louisville does Michigan State, for comparison’s sake. And here’s why…they have heart. A lot of it.

Yancy Gates will disappear after this year. He may have a 4-year NBA career that ends poorly, but he’s probably the most valuable player left in the tournament not on an AP All-American team.  The difference between Cincinatti and Florida State in the game Sunday wasn’t talent, because FSU gets the nod on a team and individual level with Michael Snear. Defense AND offense goes to FSU. Defense is obvious if you’ve ever heard the name Leonard Hamilton (which is why I check his name over Mick Cronin for Cincinnati in the head-coaching category) and the Seminole offense is good too, though the second fiddle on the team. Well, for all the FSU fans out there, sorry but heart is a pretty big factor in March and the reason why I’m worried about my expressionless-Heels, right now.

After the infamous battle against cross-town rival Xavier, the Bearcats went (10-1) before dropping three straight and then going (9-2) beating the 1-loss Cuse in the Big East Tournament. Looks to me like this team plays really tough when they care a little more. Maybe that’s really optimistic in search of this team’s success, but compare that to Xavier going (1-5) and dropping nearly every other game all the way to the tournament. Also, Xavier who plays in the Atlantic-10 won by 23 against the Bearcats, who play in the Big East, that day, December 10^th. Again, it’s worth noting Xavier made it through the week too, but they had some help from Lehigh. The bottom line that exists in the match-up between FSU and Cinci is, whoever wants it more in March, takes it usually. What a great, physical, grinding game

Chris- My favorite game of the weekend wasn't either of the 15 seeds beating 2 seeds, though those were fun to watch. No it was the game between 6th seeded Murray State and 3rd seed Marquette. These were two evenly matched teams that both came to play ball Saturday night. They played a similar style and neither team dominated up until the last few minutes where Marquette played nearly perfect basketball down the stretch to beat a very good Murray State team. I'm not sure if many people tuned in for this game or if it will talked about as one of the best games of the tournament but it was my favorite game of the tournament so far. 


Lowlights(?)
Mitch- My biggest disappointment this tournament was FSU's loss. I know Coach Ham said he wasn't, but I am. I loved that we won our conference, but I wanted a run in the tourney. I wanted to see this team reach its potential; a potential that I thought included an Elite 8 bid. Certainly our guys did not play their best game and allowed a smaller team get the best of them. Michael Snaer hit big threes but took a while to slash to the lane, something he was devastatingly good at during the ACCT. Ian Miller was not #coldblooded enough to my chagrin. I am sad we lost and will be pissed whenever I watch a Sweet 16 or Elite 8 game.




Chris- Will I slam refs for their bad calls at bad times? Nope. Will I slam all of us for always blaming the refs for their bad calls? Probably on a latter date.  What I will complain about is the late games on Thursday and Sunday night. The last game on Thursday night started at 10:32 pm Eastern time. Friday night it doesn't really matter what time the late game ends you can sleep in the next morning. Same for Saturday night. But on Sunday the last game of the day 9:54 pm Eastern time. Think if on Sunday night you are a 12 year old who loves to watch the Seminoles play and the game starts too late for you to watch. Or the reporter who has to a tight deadline (boo hoo, right?) Or anyone who loves good, college basketball but also has to work in the morning. They missed an amazing game that didn't have to start so late. Schedule makers you can tighten up these games on Thursday and Sunday nights and give people with lives the next morning a chance to watch fun, Tournament basketball. 


If you have your own highlight or lowlight from this weekend throw it down in the comments section. 

TSOP - Tales on the Tournament

Here at TheSportsParty, we want you guys to be as informed as possible on the past, present, and future of the state of play. We’re sure you all caught 32 basketball games at 40 minutes a piece over the last 4 days, but did you notice the few storylines that emerged?

Over the weekend, Norfolk State abused the Tigers of Missouri…uh, hooray? Duke’s bright NCAA lights burned out against Lehigh…great? But, all four teams are playing golf now. So, let’s discussed the stuff that ACTUALLY matters, other than a couple of lucky 15-seeds. There are 16-teams left. So, lets say a thing or two about the few teams that still have legitimate dreams of cutting down the nets in New Orleans.

I’m going to do this list in order of each team’s chances at advancing to the Championship game…So, sorry to all the Xavier/Ohio fans that stumbled upon this page. 



1. Kentucky – After a tough battle against the Cyclones of Ames, Iowa, instead of the Final Four rematch with UConn that was almost inevitable according to the sporting world, the Wildcats are playing well enough to survive at this point. Teams get better as the tournament progresses and there isn’t much left lurking around for Kentucky until the Final 4, except Indiana---1 of the 2 teams to defeat the ‘Cats this year---but they’ll need to get their act together if they don’t want to be compared to the 2008 Memphis Tiger team after the Championship game. By the way, they’re in that game unless Izzo has something to say about it. At their worst, Kentucky is still a tough team for any opponent.

2. North Carolina –UNC may have the most interesting story of the tournament, thus far. Only a Duke fan would deny this team as capable of being in the Championship game at full strength. Even at partial strength, with 2 of their top-3 guards riding the bench with injuries, the Tarheels could’ve put up their 7th National Championship banner. But, Kendall Marshall took an injury to his non-shooting wrist in the Creighton game, which looked more like a Judo match in some television screens… So, what? It’s his non-shooting hand. Exactly…(While writing this my Dad just texted me saying, “All we can do is hope for the best, but expect the worst.” Good timin’ pops!) But, seriously…The truth will come out on the severity of the injury tonight on Williams' live radio show at 7 p.m., most likely. But here’s something for Tarheels fans to think about. (1) Roy Williams likes to build drama in March---Lawson, Hansborough, and May were hurt going into the tournament, most recently. (2) He played several minutes until he realized how bad it was hurt. He will have surgery and/or a cast from here on out. But, the heels will probable not need him until Sunday and he played well with it hurt. There’s a lot of time for him to make a lot of improvement. Stillman White is no reason to count them out of the Final Four, but he can’t take them the whole way. So, with hoping for the best, Tarheel fans, you have to realize that this has happened to UNC before while holding one of the best teams in a year (‘77/Walter Davis, ’87/Kenny Smith). Thus, expect the worst.

3. Kansas – The reason Kansas is a favorite over MSU to make it to the finals is because they’ll have to get by a hurt UNC vs. MSU who’ll have to get by a healthy UK. There are only 4 teams capable of winning it all right now, if the best teams are in it at the end. Kentucky, UNC, Kansas, and MSU are the ones that you should be betting on. And here’s why KU fans shouldn’t be concerned with chalk, unless it’s Rock Chalk, of course. You see, chalk would suggest UNC is traveling to St. Louis with the best chance, and ultimately, they are. But, it’s St. Louis. Two home-games for the Jayhawks. If Kendall Marshall is 90% after the Ohio game (which will be tough because he probable won’t be active), the Tarheels are still a 6-point favorite based on match-ups. But, that isn’t necessarily the case. It depends on Marshall. Kansas slipping past Purdue last night was terrible news in the Midwest Region for the other 3 teams. With Marshall hurt for the Heels and the next two games taking place in St. Louis, the Jayhawks might have just become the favorite for a Final Four run out of that Region.

4. Michigan State – Even though they slipped by St. Louis with just a 4-point win, Sparty is fine. One thing a few players on a team can’t change during tournament basketball is, experienced coaching will get you a couple free-bees. And, in this instance, I’m not talking about Izzo; though he is the example anyone would jump to. For anyone who has just begun watching basketball recently enough to think Florida is a (quote-unquote) “good-basketball school?” (uh, wha?), you probably don’t recognize the name, Rick Majerus, the St. Louis Skipper. Well, he’s made his ‘rounds’ through all the ‘rounds’ before. So, the win by 4 against St. Louis wasn’t a bad win, in the least. Sparty does have to look out below though. They have a (3), (4), and (7) seed in their way and probably the roughest road to the Championship of anyone left other than OSU.

5. OSU/Syracuse/Wisconsin – What a great Sweet 16 and Elite 8 this will be? We ruled Syracuse out last week, so if they make it out of next weekend, I vow to write a 3-page article on why they are ‘the favorite’... Right after I finish cleaning up the throw-up off my shirt. Looking at this region, Cinci wasn’t an underdog in the game against FSU. They’ve been playing with a lot of heart recently against a similar, yet streaky team in FSU. But, Ohio State is a good team. Dominant/Athletic… Unless there’s an upset, Wisconsin and Ohio State are the favorite teams to meet in the Elite -8. (Wisconin could lose to Syracuse, but in actuality, they should beat the Orange by 5, with-or-without Fab Melo.) The game between Wisconsin and Ohio State will be the best head-to-head matchup over the weekend. Ultimately, either of these teams will fall to a healthy UNC in the Final Four (at that point, they will have beaten Kansas, thus Marshall will be healthy enough to play). On the other hand, if KU can make it out of the Midwest, whoever wins here will have a decent chance. But, if you’re looking for great Big-10 basketball (i.e. great physical basketball that’ll come down to the last possession), check out the game between Bo Ryan’s club and Jerod Sullinger.

To the Xaviers and N.C. Staters, the Pitinos and Donovans… Congratulations on your victories over the weekend. The tournament can be fun. But it’s a hard tournament to win wearing Cinderella’s slippers. Good luck to all those playing in sneakers! And enjoy the tournament Sports-Partiers!

TSOP – The Contenders: Who’s winning the Tournament?!?!?! Part II

(Writer’s Note: Yes, this is the Contenders. Part II to last weeks ‘The Fakers’. However, we’ve thrown in Syracuse to illustrate their fate as well as the 5 we here at TheSportsParty consider this year’s true contending teams. In all, our Contenders plus Syracuse represent the ‘Select Six’ which will produce our next champion…Don’t doubt it!)

How goes it fellow bracket busters? As of yesterday, I’m sure you’re all in full-swing testing theory after theory about how to get this year’s bracket perfectly prophesized. We, here at TheSportsParty know your pain. But, if you need a little help in trying to figure out who will still be around to see the bright lights of New Orleans at the end of the month, here’s some food for thought…

However you fill out your brackets, it’s never a good idea to take too many chances with the select few that are to be expected to arrive at the Final Four. Therefore, it would probably be helpful to know which of those teams will have the hardest game-by-game challenge on their way throughout the first two weekends. In other words, between the teams considered favorites to win it all, who will face the hardest teams to get there? (With us those favorite teams are Syracuse, Kentucky, North Carolina, Michigan State, Kansas, and Ohio State…Take the field if you want against those 6, but I like my chances with these heavyweights.)

For those of you a little on the ‘outs’ of the sporting world, there are these incredibly specific, insanely accurate, and scientifically calibrated statistics organized into a ranking system known as the Pomeroy College Basketball Rankings. You can find these stats at Kenpom.com if you’re more interested, but we’re using them here because they are useful in measuring a team’s actual success and to project how good they will be in the future. I will let you figure out the system yourself at the Kenpom website, but for the purposes of this, just trust that it’s a little more detailed than the lousy RPI/SOS system most ESPN-ers live or die by.

To measure the possibility of success for our ‘Select Six’ through the NCAA tournament, we will take a simple Strength of Schedule for the most probable contenders each will face in their respective region…. Still following? You’ll figure it out as we go along. But sincerely, check out that website…. It’ll be help in itself to maneuver your bracket.

Lastly, I’m pretty confident in my bracket, as I’m sure we all are. Therefore, for the purposes of this, I’m sticking to the match-ups I have for each of these teams. No worries though, I’m pretty good at ranking strengths/weaknesses in teams, albeit random upsets that no one saw coming (VCU v. Butler, why???) are inevitable. Haha, told you…confident. But seriously, no worries. I rarely strayed from chalk in this one because of the precision of the committee this season. Other than Belmont over N.C. State to reach the Sweet 16, I didn’t see too many limbs to walk out on.

So, without further ado…

Select Six

Kentucky – Potential 3rd Round through Elite 8 match-ups: (35) UConn, (10) Wichita St., (17) Duke. = 62

…If you haven’t figured it out yet, 62 represents the opponents’ rankings combined. The team with the lowest ‘score’ should, by theory, have the toughest route, and the team with the highest…well, you know…

Michigan State – (15) St. Louis, (13) New Mexico, (8) Missouri = 36

Syracuse – (22) Kansas State, (6) Wisconsin, (2) Ohio State = 30

Ohio State – (42) West Virginia, (21) Florida State, (6) Wisconsin = 69

North Carolina – (34) Creighton, (25)Michigan, (4) Kansas = 63

Kansas – (43) St. Mary, (23) Belmont, (5) UNC = 71

*The Kenpom Rankings are indicated in parenthesis.

**Also, because each ‘Select Six’ is a 1 or 2 seed and emphatically expected to win their first NCAA tourney game, those games have been excluded. This is due to the skewing of our projections through low ranking teams like potential UK opponent (258) MVSU.

We’ll get to the analysis part in just a bit, but here’s our Final Four breakdown, as well. (With the next point in mind, these rankings are mere projections. Obviously, there is no possible way to predict how the tournament will endure when a random bounce of the ball can affect the entire tournament. C’mon people…Some of you still think Connecticut was the best team last year? Well, they were in the 30s last year around this time, if I remember correctly.) The Final Four we are going to use is the most likely in my superior opinion. My opinion is superior KU fans because (A) it is 1:00 in the morning, (B) I’m a realistic Carolina fan who watched you struggle against Duke but respect the success you’ve had since, (even have a little money on them to win it all if my Heels can’t…and…fell in love with Robinson back in December), and (C)…o everyone… it’s my forum… Do the work for your team on your own, if you think they’ve got a shot at the title….Sorry lent-observers, Notre Dame ain’t making it out of the week. But, I’ll run through each scenario with each team facing the opponents I see to be in there way, granting the make the Final Four…

…keeping up? Here we go…

Final Four

(1) Kentucky – (3) Michigan State, (5) North Carolina = 8 + 62 = 70

(3) Michigan State – (1) Kentucky, (5) North Carolina = 6 + 36 = 42

(7) Syracuse – (5) North Carolina (1) Kentucky = 6 +30 = 36

(2) Ohio State – (5) North Carolina, (1) Kentucky = 6 + 69 = 75

(5) North Carolina- (2) Ohio State, (1) Kentucky = 3 + 63 = 76

(4) Kansas – (2) Ohio State, (1) Kentucky = 3 + 71 = 74

Again, let me emphasize the discrepancies among the top contenders. Some may say, how does OSU beat out a 1-loss Syracuse, so enthusiastically? Remember, a couple of influential variables in the Kenpom system are things like, conference strength, or margin of victory. So, a conference like the Big 12 gets a lot of credit because of the strength of its teams…I’m a big believer in the undervalue of the ACC, but I digress to my point to why there is little difference, if any between #10 and #11 or #34 and #35, etc. So, what can we take away from this?

Team-By-Team:

Syracuse/Ohio State – Syracuse is out. Not a chance for the Orange. Boeheim’s problems got worse yesterday when he found out he had to battle the scrappy badgers in the Sweet 16 just to meet up with their Achilles heel…Sulliger’s ability to dominate the 15 athletes Boeheim’s zone can throw at him. Don’t bet on the Orange. I’ve got them falling to Wisconsin. This is the toughest road to the Final Four, by far. Ohio State will walk to the Elite 8. Florida State is a great team. But Florida State is a great team because of how well they match up with 2 other great teams, Duke and UNC. Ultimately, the Heels and Devils are a both more valid contenders to go deep. But yeah, FSU has both’s number this year. FSU is streaky and they won’t be able to guard Sullinger and Craft after a week to prepare for both squads. Funny thing about preparing for that week. The scouting report OSU does on FSU and Wisconsin will have a lot of similarities. FSU is defense. Wisconsin is hustle. Defense is hustle. But hustle can't outscore Sullinger and Craft. Don't sleep on OSU. They struggled once or twice in the regular season, but they never fell far from the top ranks for a reason. They'll coral themselves and make yet another Final 4.

Michigan State – All in all, Don’t go against Sparty. Maybe it’s a pick based on intangibles, but when it comes to March, Izzo is completely tangible. And he’s the best reason the Spartans will ultimately make the Final Four to represent the West. Yes, they are facing the second toughest test, scoring a 36. St. Louis will stir the pot off the bat, but fall short. New Mexico will disturb the apple cart, but the guys in green will endure. And finally, Missouri will try to outplay them, but just like OSU and Syracuse, the Spartans ability to move the ball inside to Green, outside to Green, off the backboard to Green, will lead them to victory against Frank Haith, who's still a little wet behind the ears. Missouri will have their hands full as a high percentage field goal team going up against one of the most efficient defenses and rebounding teams in the country. Then, once they arrive in New Orleans, the Spartans will fall to Kentucky, I feel. But, I battled myself with whether or not they would fall to the Heels, instead. ’09 repeat just doesn’t seem like a future headliner to me?

Kentucky – With respect to the NCAA committee and Wichita St., Kentucky has got to feel the best about its chances making their way to The Big Easy. Connecticut is about as talented as they were last year, minus a Kemba Walker figure. Wichita St. is the only team that will present a threat to the Wildcats. They’re good people. I’m serious! But, with the ability to dominate with Anthony Davis, I think the game against Duke and Wichita St. will be fairly similar games with a closer score coming in the Sweet Sixteen. I know you’ve heard the Shallow-end-of-the-pool analysis by ESPN, but this region isn’t so tough. But, when the Wildcats meet a tough opponent in Michigan State, trouble could arise for the Wildcats. I think they’ve made more improvements than UNC since the last time these two teams met, but UNC is playing pretty strong since the loss to Duke. With FSU out of the way, I think the Tar Heels find themselves facing the Wildcats in the only game in April. Roy Williams is the best in the business at getting his crew ready to play ball in March when the talent is in place, and I think the team Kentucky might see in April will be pretty fluid compared to the ACC finals Tarheels. What a great game on the horizon!!

North Carolina/Kansas – You may be asking yourself, “Didn’t he just discuss the Tarheels’ chances?" Well, yeah…but through the eyes of Kentucky. Looking at the run both UNC and Kansas must make before finding each other, there seem to be no major problems. Carolina will need to compete to get by Creighton and Michigan, but they shouldn’t have to put too much effort into a win. (Based on their capabilities, of course!) With Kansas, things are looking the same. St. Mary shouldn’t be a problem. And the Georgetown/Belmont game should be a coin flip with Belmont giving Georgetown match-up problems. Then again, this is the mid-major I’m riding a bit in this tournament…Regardless, NC State will run out of gas against the winner of the Belmont/Georgetown game, and that team will subsequently run out of gas against Kansas. The most interesting game of the region will take place against Roy Williams’ former Jayhawks and current Tarheels, which will be duly publicized. This one will be in St. Louis, which is just a smidge closer to Lawrence than Chapel Hill…But, I’m telling you. As someone who's seen it happen twice, close up. After a loss in the ACC tournament, no one in the country practices harder and then plays better than a Williams-coached UNC team. Don't think so? Georgia Tech beat UNC in '05 and those stingy 'Noles did it in '09. Ask Michigan State how fun that championship game was. To be completely honest, with the potential freight liner fueling up in Chapel Hill today, the ‘Hawks may end up being a 10 point dog by the time that match-up comes about. Carolina moves on past the toughest challenge they’ll have to face in the Midwest region. From here, it only gets tougher for the Heels or Hawks, whomever makes it. Like I said, there is little difference among the best 5 teams, according to Kenpom rankings, die to minute differences within, perhaps the conference they competed in, or a margin of victory issue. The Tarheels, being my favorite in the game against KU will take the hardest road to cutting down the nets in New Orleans. They'll face (2)Ohio State only to meet the odds on favorite Wildcats of (1)Kentucky. Against OSU, talent level will present an problem for the Buckeyes if Thad Matta isn’t already the issue compromising OSU’s fate to a superior final four artist in Roy Williams.

Then, the Battle of the Blues in the land of Jazz and Blues will end the year on a high-note for the NCAA. Trust me, from a basketball history perspective, you can't argue they didn't try to set up this match-up. Not only that, I have 4 historic NCAA rivalry games scheduled on my bracket: Duke-Kentucky, 1992 Elite 8; UNC-Michigan, 1993 National Championship; UNC-Kansas, 1957 National Championship, UNC-MSU/UK, 2009 National Championship/Dean Smith's 879-Final Four...There is also potential for Michigan State-Florida, UNC-Georgetown, and Duke-UNLV to reignite their national championship rematches, this year. Don’t be surprised if the sky tears open on April 2nd, if the highly anticipated Heels and Wildcats meet up. The committee truly did a great job on setting up this blockbuster matchup. I'm taking the Heels in mine, but I wouldn't blame you for backing Calipari this year. Enjoy the bracket busting, Sports Fans!

ACC Champs!

We just took down (in the regular season and in the tournament) two of the most storied programs in college basketball. It is not as if these teams are define by their "programs" even if they arewe bad. These are teams that are both top ten teams. They have great talent and great coaches. They are top seeds in the NCAA tournament.

The long march to the top of the conference was defined by my brother when he said, "You know it's a good thing and the program is legitimately where they are when you win the conference tournament and realize we should have won the tournament."

A tweet after the championship game read, "UNC still has more top 25 recruits on its roster than FSU has had in its history." I was slighted at first, but then I realized, SCOREBOARD. Then I realized in most people's eyes we should not have won the tournament despite the great play in the conference regular season, the big shots, the experience, the coacing adjustments.

Year after year we complained that Hamilton would not adjust. That he couldn't recruit a point guard, that his players did not develop. This all changed. His teams, maybe at a slow pimp's pace, morphed into a physically tough, savy, and skilled team. It is the perfect combination of three point shooting and inside play.

If a team pressures the guards, we beat them to the lane. If they clog the lane, we shoot the three. If we need a spark we play pressure defense. If a player beats a guard off the dribble, we have shot blockers or play help side defense. All the credit for this program goes to Hamilton. I am not sure he had this time frame in mind, he probably would've liked to start the NCAA tourney run a few years before he did, but we have arrived.

FSU is a legitimate contender year in and year out for the ACC title. We are no longer the bottom tier, middle of the pack, or our most recent claim to fame "the third best program." No we are number one and Hamilton has every intention of staying.

He has out coached Williams and K this season. He has game planned and prepared teams to play in EVERY big game. If there is a fault with his teams it is that they start the season very slow and have a debilitating defeat somewhere in early January. But that has proved to be the heat that melts the team and forges it together.

We will go into this tournament with confidence, hopefully not satisfied. I think we do not have a target on our back despite winning. Kentucky, Syracuse, Mizzou are all buzzed about. Duke and UNC have lost some luster, but pedigree of the programs and talent on the floor is too much for many analysts to look past (we know, just ask the media and fans about FSU football in the 00's).

But do not look past FSU's team play. Every player contributes and picks the other up when they fail. The way Snaer goes, so does our team, but everyone else is a fluid piece in an ever changing puzzle. This FSU team is more a team than any other in the conference. Each player has confidence in self and other teammates. A strange combination of selfishness and selflessness emerges when teammates trust each other to do their job. That has happed with FSU this year.

I love this team. I love Coach Hamilton for the perseverance and for taking care of his players. I love this conference for trying to screw anyone who isn't from Tobacco Road and still bowing to the best athletic department in the conference. They must be all sorts of butt hurt.

I think we make an Elite Eight run in the Tourney. We have the experience, confidence, and the skill. Most of all we have the coach who loves his players and they will follow him anywhere. Six years ago, I never thought I'd say it, but Hamilton is a hell of a basketball coach. I think he has learned some on the way, too. But I'm glad he's our basketball coach.

TSOP: The Fakers (A humble fan’s perspective) Part 1

It’s what we all wait for either from April to April, the Superbowl to April, or, for the thousands that annually fill out those funny little brackets to win their office pool despite following an ‘eeiny-meeny-miny-moe’ logic,… March to April.

Let me justify my position. Just a humble fan. And that’s ultimately it. I’m a Carolina guy. But, I have the ability to look at things from a neutral perspective. I am sure…No, completely certain… that Phil Ford is the greatest player to ever hoop in a Carolina uniform. But, I also respect the reality that the two greatest players to play in the ACC were Ralph Sampson and David Thompson, arguably of course. I worship Dean Smith as one of the painfully few great coaches to ever lead student-athletes to success in every sense of the word. But, I can just as easily see why John Wooden, Lew Alcindor, and Bill Walton are also names usually preceded by ‘the great….”

With a few more weeks in the season for championship grumblings to percolate, the SP is here to break down who we think are the top teams that will be left around to fight it out in New Orleans, and the top teams who will have weaknesses of an inevitable early round upset. (I say top teams because…well, you didn’t expect VCU to play Butler in the Final Four, either) So, here are our fakers…

Fakers

Like I said, we’ll start here with the top ranked teams with too many flaws for a 6-game late-season run and then, check out our breakdown of the championship contenders in the second part to this edition of The State of Play in the coming days.

To start breaking down which top-ranked teams will lose out early, let’s look at who’s on top right now. Here’s the latest NCAA men’s basketball top-ten according to ESPN.com,

1. Kentucky

2. Syracuse

3. Kansas

4. Duke

5. Michigan State

6. North Carolina

7. Missouri

8. Marquette

9. Baylor

10. Ohio State

Now, I’m a sincere believer in luck. No, no, no, I’m not talking about Cinderella stories. And not the type of luck Bill Self ran into when John Calipari threw out free throws as a necessity in the ’08 run or Duke’s ability to find a mid-major to compete against in the national championship game in ‘10. Well, actually that is sort of the luck I’m talking… In a nutshell, I find it hard not to believe the national champion comes from a completely random selection of one of the top 5-8 teams depending on the spread of talent around the league and/or the distance between the top 1, 2, or 3 and everyone else. Like, say, UNC and Illinois versus the rest of the field in 2005? Generally, it takes luck on the part of one of the top teams to find themselves in the right position to win the tournament. Luck: something that dictates seeding, region, match-up, ball bounces, anything. Now, I’m not saying those are the only teams that could win. Take the N.C. States and Georgetowns of the world. Look at 2005, even. I’ve always thought my Heels got help from Chris Paul hitting Julius Hodge in his jewels in the ACC tournament…(Wake was the only team better than UNC that year, argue if you will) But, more than likely, this is the case.

I’ll keep this short. So, at first glance, the best ‘fakers’ to me are #2 Syracuse, #5 Michigan State, and #7 Missouri. Okay, okay, okay…I’ll give it to you, MSU and Mizzou might not be a surprise with their recent struggles, but less than a week ago all of these 3 teams were locks for 2-seeds at worst. Well, except for Syracuse and maybe that does catch a few off-guard.

Syracuse is lean, quick, athletic, and last, but certainly not least, well coached. On the downside, they’re pretty small and, let’s be honest, they really don’t have too many impressive wins. They only average 35.5 rebounds a game, leaving them in 117^th place in the NCAA. Coupled with this, their inability to put up top field-goal percentages will ruin them on offensive put-backs when matched up against a big team that can keep pace with the Orangemen guards, like Ohio State. A question for thought and my own personal speculation (because I have this website as a mouthpiece), Are they over-ranked at 2? Probably….Now, now, I applaud anyone who can go undefeated throughout the early part of the season and maintain few losses moving into the latter part, but Murray State is kinda like that too and I’m not putting much money on them this year, personally. Face it, the Big East is bad and only getting worse. Syracuse is talented, I’ll grant you. But the defending national champions out of the Big East, with all due respect, was more of a Cinderella story than a powerhouse last year, and has since fallen off, comparatively. Yes, ‘Cuse has quality wins. With a 29-1 record, Syracuse has beaten a then #9 Florida by 4, #11 Georgetown by 3 in OT, and #20 Marquette by 7. But, those aren’t very large margins and all those were home games. Their road record leaves much to be desired too with a loss at #9 NotreDame and an eeked out win by 1 at an overrated #18 Louisville. I’m not saying they won’t win the national championship, because they are a good team and have been successful (but, mainly because stranger things have happened during March Madness…like people taking a win against Butler in the finals seriously). But, if I were an Orange fan, I’d be concerned about the cracks in the armor.

Missouri and Michigan State are more similar to each other than Syracuse; they both came on strong late in the season and, with the passing week, they’ve both dropped a game or two. My fear is that it will only get worse for one of these teams. Missouri’s chances at a final four are imaginable, not likely, but imaginable. Their chances at a championship…one in a million, to me. The reason they won’t win a championship is Frank Haith, plain and simple. He isn’t a terrible coach or anything, though. He’s had mediocre success. But, he’s a little too new to the tournament to be a top contender…While at Miami, Haith only had one appearance in the tournament, grabbing a single win to help advance the Canes to the second round in 2008. Success is objective during the regular season because every game is theoretically as important as the last. Coaching in the league just a single season can give a new coach the mentality he needs to wage another regular season. But, the tournament is different. Hall of Famers take decades to get their first taste. So, don’t expect an average amateur to stumble into a national championship. It just doesn't happen...

Finally, the man/team that never misses March, Tom Izzo/MSU. And rightfully so…If Izzo were to follow in Bruce Pearl’s footsteps in wearing his school’s colors, Sparty’s captain would look like a lot like a sneaky old leprechaun. Am I right?

Well, I can’t stress enough that of the ‘fakers’ I see inside the top seven, Izzo’s team looks to be the most serious about ring hunting. Izzo has a way of doing exactly what it takes to get every drop of potential out of his boys during the tournament. But, let’s be fair…this team’s expectations weren’t high at the start of the season. The off-season took a toll on the Spartans. Three years ago, playing in the national championship against UNC, 3 young stars stood out: Kalin Lucas, Delvon Roe, and Korie Lucious. These guys pulled a large part of the weight on this developing team until they all went separate ways this summer via graduation, retirement, or transfer. Personally, I’m not counting them out of a Final Four run just yet because of the big man in the middle who should be considered for POY, Draymond Green. Then again, the post-season blues usually find the teams that have battled hard all season until the gas tank runs dry in an unexpected round. This team plays hard and outmatches anyone in heart, but I’d say their chance may have come and gone with the departure of the three big stars during the off-season.

Well, that's my take on it. Find us again in the coming days for Part 2 of TSOP: The Contenders.