Monday, January 9, 2012

The Tebow Effect

For some reason, Tim Tebow has caused all kinds of media attention in his career as a football player. It started as a high schooler and his recruitment. Then it was his play at the University of Florida. Now it is his role as the starting quarterback for the Denver Broncos.

The scope of the attention he has garnered has grown as his role has grown. As a high schooler it was recruiting sites and message boards. As a college player, it was college media. Yes, the coverage was everywhere; CBS basically made him a god. Remember the rain game at FSU when he had mud on his face? The jump pass? The speech? ESPN, owning much of CFB TV rights also played him up across their platforms. But even then, he was known to mostly college football fans... and many grew tired of hearing about him.

Now, he is in the NFL, and a whole new set of the country will pay attention. The northeast, the midwest/Chicago market, and LA have all been exposed to Tim Tebow on a level they had not before. I mention those areas because they are the top media markets in the country. Whereas before, the college football media coverage was primarily through the southeast and midwest... it touched the southwest and the pacific northwest. But considering Tebow's career took him to teams primarily in the southeast and he beat only a few Big Ten schools, the sustained media impact on the major markets did not arise until he made the leap into the NFL.

With that established, I think Tebow has received the attention he has for three reasons, primarily. First, he plays a very passionate, unorthodox style of football which many find unique and attractive. Second, he is a very good, nice guy. People who meet him like him. He is a good teammate and gives credit to other teammates. Third, and this is the main focus of my post, he has brought religion to the public sphere and it has challenged many people's belief systems in one way or another.

The United States was founded with the idea that people could believe whatever they wanted. The state could not interfere with the on goings of a religion and one religion could not be endorsed by the government (in order to prevent the type of tyranny that had swept across Europe with the combination of monarchies and state run religions). So it is in our nature to not want to publicly discuss religion because it is personal to many and because the public arena is dominated by either government endorsed institutions or private institutions with a share of the market not wanting to alienate any customer.

So Tebow's desire to bring his religious beliefs into the public sphere challenges many people who either do not like religion or who do not want religion discussed for the reasons above. This is completely acceptable and the right of each person to think this. Tebow has the right to discuss religion publicly and people have a right to not want to listen. This may cause most of the discontent with his assertion to have religion in his conversations, but I doubt that is all of it. I think it is more like a tool or avenue for something deeper to surface.

Chuck Kloesterman brought this up in a great piece on Tebow in a Grantland article. He said that people were becoming outraged or attracted to Tebow because they thought he was potentially being rewarded with wins for being a good Christian. I think this was at the heart of many people's response to Tebow; some people liked it, some people didn't, but almost everyone was paying attention.

Here is the retort most often people had, "Does God not have something better to do than to decides who wins a football game?" Certainly this is an interesting insight into the belief system of those who say this. I think this is probably an insight into people who probably don't think a lot about God, because most people who think about God either think he is an omnipotent being or he does not exist.

Allow me to elaborate. To think a god exists who does not control something is to think the god who you believe in is not sufficiently powerful to exist. So it very possible that god is not really much of a god at all. And considering the tradition that Tebow comes from, the god he believes in is most likely omnipotent. Therefore the response to his assertion is to downplay his God's influence. But his God, according to Christian Tradition, created the world. So in essence, the argument becomes his God can create the world but not control a football game in it.

I guess that is possible, if that god is the god of Deists. Jefferson was a Deist. Being a man of scientific understanding and a son of the enlightenment, he recognized the need of a Creator. He also saw that the world was vast and abided by certain natural laws. He surmised that a creator existed, put laws into place, and allowed the world to work; kind of like a watchmaker. However, the God Tebow believes in also is a personal God who took a human form to sacrifice himself for people who stopped wanting the relationship he first established when he created the world. So to argue that Tebow's God has no interest in a football game is to call Tebow's God non existent because he cannot be both an omnipotent god and one who does not have control, therefore Tebow's God exists in control or does not exist at all.

I'm not disparaging anyone for not believing in the God of Christianity or someone's belief in an impersonal god who exists with no control over anything or a belief in a god who is personal but lacks control over something even though he should be involved in other things of more importance than football games. That is their prerogative and I respect their beliefs. However, I do not respect inconsistency in belief because what is the purpose of having that belief? Nonetheless, I am trying to get to the bottom of the response to Tim Tebow, not examine what I think about other people's beliefs. An examination of what people believe is necessary though, because it is the conflicting or concurring beliefs to Tebow's stated belief's that cause the attention.

What do people think God has a role for? What is he supposed to be involved with. As good, open minded people, we cannot logically say that God is not in control of natural disasters, famines, or wars. Why would God do that? How could he take sides? So the idea that he has better things to do than a football game would imply he has to be involved in the major things, right? Maybe not. Maybe he doesn't involve himself in the major or the minor things. Maybe he just exists and steps in with some divine intervention or miracle when we need it most. But then, that begs the question, if he can do that, why doesn't he help all the time? Why doesn't he fix everything? And if could fix things, why does he not have the control to fix a football game or a natural disaster? Dammit!! Who is this god and why or why not isn't he doing anything? Where does his power end or begin? Does he even care what is going on?

I think Tebow's attention came from the fact that he was winning games in dramatic fashion against the odds that he shouldn't. He has a bad throwing motion, running backs fumbled all opportune times, kickers made 55+ yard kicks. I mean, it was basically a sports movie in real life. And as humans we have the desire to belong to a narrative, a human or personal story. We saw this playing out and thought a larger, possibly divine, hand had to be helping. Then the nation as a whole was challenged in their belief systems.

It is nothing for members of orthodox religions to hold the belief that their god is omnipotent. In fact, many people take comfort in a god who controls things. They believe in that god and that god recognizes their efforts or a relationship and seeks to be apart of their lives how he chooses.

For Americans, we have an individualistic streak in us. We want to be in control of our lives, so the possibility that divine intervention could choose one person over another really bothers us. Further, it brings metaphysical, spiritual, or eternal questions into our mind's eye. We don't like thinking about things beyond the physical or eternal. Hell, many do not thinking about the near future... like work on Monday or how to save for retirement. It is big and overwhelming. I suppose that is why many orthodox believers take solace in a god who has it figured out.

I think that bothered many Americans about Tebow. He had a strong confidence in his God and they saw possibly divine work at play. It challenged belief systems they held and ones they did not know they held. It even caused some to be angry with the system they did hold. For example, many did not like that he could be rewarded with wins for his beliefs, but many people think that they will get to heaven or have good karma on Earth for their good works. Their belief is to do good things and be rewarded. Is that much different than Tebow's? Not really, except that Tebow believes his God is omnipotent and controls things where others think they can control their own outcome. And if God did really reward Tebow, then they think that God is exclusive and intolerant.

It is impossible to prove beliefs, that is why they are called "beliefs" and not "proofs". But we all have them. We may not know what we believe, but our actions bear out the values or traditions we hold true, which are based on our beliefs on how the world works. I think Tebow on a large scale challenged many of those beliefs through his exposure to the largest media markets in our country and it caused the media attention to be incredibly high (side note: those markets also lean more left politically. Typically those who belong to the political left in the US does not like religion in public, religion at all, or exclusive religions).

It also caused a lot of thoughtless outrage or praise. I will say, though, it was handled well in many places. People for the most part agreed he was a nice guy, he had a terrible throwing motion and great defense, he was entitled to his beliefs and we are entitled to ours. But the flippant comment that "God has better things to do than determine the outcome of football games" is one that is not thought out (and if it is, it is by someone who does not believe in God but does not want to take the time to explain their rationale, which is understandable considering many negative responses they could receive). I think that reactionary response is the manifestation of the deeper issue regarding that many found when reporting on or responding to Tim Tebow, his play, and his outspoken beliefs.

Friday, January 6, 2012

Saban's Fatal Flaw

Punishing defense, powerful running backs, strong offensive lines. These are all staples of a Nick Saban team. Teams covet the types of players Saban brings to his program and how he prepares them for the NFL. Often times his preparation of their talents is what brings the best to his campus... I mean, the only legal thing the University of Alabama is willing to talk about. It is the SEC after all.

On the other hand, a lot can be known about a team or program based on what it is not known for. Never has a nick Saban team been known for a great quarterback or even great quarterback play. Nick Saban's fatal flaw is his lack of a quarterback who can make plays to win him the game.

That last statement should not be controversial at all. No one would say or think that Alabama, over the last 3 years (can't count year one) has used his quarterback to win him games. Saban would rather control the game clock and flow of the game by using his running backs and his defense. It shortens the game and allows for less errors. It is not a bad style of coaching. In fact, Saban's process of mastery and execution based performance is so successful that it is mimicked across the country.

Anyone who has breathed the same air on a coaching staff with Saban will be hired before someone who hasn't. Ok, that's hyperbole, but there are a number of people across the NCAA landscape who have reached HC status because of their time on a Saban staff, whether it is earned through their own success or success by association.

However, Saban's style of coaching has a fatal flaw. Saban teams will struggle when they must throw the ball to gain an advantage. Granted he stacks the deck in his favor by recruiting and developing a massive offensive line and incredibly big and fast running backs. Nonetheless, the most important person on the field will never be the quarterback. His quarterbacks will be nothing more than game managers with high completion percentages from safe passes and safe play actions on 1st down after the run has been established. That is a fatal flaw and one that has and will cost Saban a few SEC/National titles.

In my LSU/Bama preview quad-podcast I predicted UA to take care of business because I said those two teams are nearly equal except AJ McCarron will make plays when he has to. Certainly, McCarron was overwhelmed by the insanely good LSU defense, but Jared Jefferson wasn't overwhelmed by the Bama defense. Jefferson was the type of X factor behind center that Saban doesn't have.

No one would say Jefferson was a great QB in the classic sense of the word. He is not a pocket passer nor does he direct an offense like Landry Jones does, but he can make plays with his legs, something the college QB must do for their team to be a title contender.

I think the big question is if Saban can recruit so well, how come he hasn't recruited a nasty QB who can sling it or at the very least be a bruising runner like he demands from his other offensive backs? I think it is because Saban likes a "game manager". Plus, and this is the most important aspect, no self respecting high quality high school quarterback will go to a Saban led team because that QB will never be a premiere player. When offenses like OU, OKST, Stanford, and Clemson are rewarding quarterbacks for being mobile, pro style, or balanced between the two why would anyone go to a program where they will not develop let alone become a household name?

In 2010, Greg McElroy ranked 67th in Pass Attempts with 313 attempts. John Brandtley had more attempts than McElroy. 34 of those QB's ranked were on AQ teams. This year AJ McCarron, a quarterback who I like and thought could be their playmaker attemped 294 passes in one less game than McElroy did in 2010. I thought this year McCarron might bring another angle to the Bama offense, but in the cookie cutter offense Saban uses year after year, it is run first and pass second; manage the game with defense and clock.


There is nothing wrong with that, but a good HS quarterback will not be attracted to it, and eventually (cough, 2010 season, cough this season) not having a stand out QB will hurt your ability to win champtionships or beat rivals. That's just how it is in the NCAA, unless you want to put it all on an incredible pro laden defense a la LSU 2011.


A look at some key stats highlights the fact that Saban will not feature or be able to develop a game changing quarterback, even to his detriment. This year Bama ran the ball 473 times compared to 294 passes by McCarron. I subtracted the number of times Bama ran it 170 times when up by more than two TD's considering garbage time and clock killing and end up with 303. A few other stats to bolster the trend is when the Tide faced 3rd down and 9 or less they ran it 50 times vs 63 pass attempts. Naturally the numbers showing running on third and short are inverse to third and long and vice versa.


But the killing stat to me that shows Saban's reluctance to put the game in a quarterback's hands is the Red Zone numbers. Bama passed the ball 44 times in the Red Zone this year but ran it 111 times. Certainly a team needs to get a push when near the goal line, and with a back like Richardson it would be stupid to not hand him the ball, this points to the bigger issue that Richardson is their only option. It is no secret the Tide feature a killer running game, but through the course of a program, when an entire position is neglected attrition will be caused from the recruiting aspect.

I love the process. I think the process is how a coach gets players to be great and great players make great teams. But Saban can recruit all he wants, until he features an offense that uses a QB more than he does Alabama will fail to be successful in the dog eat dog SEC where the best player on the field needs to be under center. No wonder Jameis Winston does not want to go to the University in his back yard.

Wednesday, January 4, 2012

Top Ten Takeaways from the FSU 2011 Season

Here are top ten things (some serious, some not) FSU fans should conclude the 2011 season with.



10. The offensive line cannot be worse.



9. We beat UF and UM again. They suck and it is awesome. I don't care at all they are terrible... except it hurts our strength of schedule in the national perception.



8. The athletic trainer and Tallahassee Memorial hospital should get a pay raise for dealing with the number of injuries this team incurred.



7. The backup quarterback is not and will not ever be the answer while Fisher is coach. He prepares the starter and picks the best player to play.



6. Karlos Williams is the most entertaining player on the field with the ball in his hands. He might not be in control and that might be bad for the defensive player trying to tackle him.



5. Greg Reid is still Greg Reid. He takes chances while on the field. It benefits the team primarily when he is the kick returner and less when he is the CB. As CB he can't afford to take chances because of his stature.



4. Nigel Bradham turned it on in the last half of the season. He moved laterally better, layed the lumber on running plays and passing plays, and defended the pass better than he ever had.



3. Bjoern Werner should be everyone's favorite player. ... but then again, we have a lot of powerful and electrifying players: Rashad Greene, Devonta Freeman, our entire defensive line.



2. Jimbo matured as a head coach in his demeanor and game plan by the end of the year. This will benefit us next year. I'm not so sure EJ was able to handle the regular dressing down he received after every play the way Ponder did. Fisher may have learned that on the personal scale and the team scale.



1. Don't believe the national hype. The only see skill players and exciting defensive players. Nole fans know what the strengths and weaknesses are. Strengths are defense and offensive skill players. The weakness is offensive line. It starts and ends there. We won't be good unless they are good. I repeat (in "O' Brother Where Art Thou" Pete voice), do not believe the national hype.

Monday, January 2, 2012

The Sports Party Playoffs: Round 1

As fans of college football we are growing tired of this BCS system. We are much more interested in a playoff to decide college football's champion. Here at The Sports Party we have decided to conduct our own playoff using the College Football NCAA12, which is a video game for the unknowing, to play our games and crown our National Champion.

We first had to set up some ground rules for our playoff. It is an eight team playoff with the conference champions rewarded with the top five seeds in our bracket. Wait you are saying there should be six champions? Well, the Big East is so bad we excluded their champion, West Virginia. But we justified it! In our playoff the conference champion has to be ranked in the Top 14 to make the playoffs. Sorry Big East your champion plays in the Belk Bowl this year.

Now we have our champions from the five conferences, LSU, Oklahoma State, Oregon, Wisconsin and Clemson, and we rank those teams one through five based on their BCS ranking. The next three teams are the top three remaining schools in the BCS polls, Alabama, Stanford and Arkansas, and they are ranked according to their BCS ranking. Here are the eight teams in the Sports Party Playoffs and their rankings.

1. LSU
2. Oklahoma State
3. Oregon
4. Wisconsin
5. Clemson
6. Alabama
7. Stanford
8. Arkansas

This system obviously rewards winning your conference, which hurts the second place SEC team, but this system also doesn't account for conference affiliation in deciding which teams get in, which helps the SEC as a conference.

It would have been easy to just let the top four seeds play home games but we still have that 5th conference champion crying foul. Why should they have to go on the road when all the other conference champions get to play at home? Here's the solution: the game between the fourth and fifth place teams will be played at one of the current BCS bowl game stadiums and so will the games of the semifinal round and the National Championship game. So the Rose, Orange, Sugar and Fiesta bowls are still relevant in our system. They just become the fourth and fifth place game, the semifinals and the National Championship on a rotating bases.

Now that we have laid all the ground rules, let's get to the first round of the Sports Party playoffs.

Saturday, December 17th


Noon: LSU vs. Arkansas, Baton Rouge, Louisiana
LSU-35
Arkansas-23

A repeat of the Black Friday match-up between the then first and third ranked team in the polls is the first game of the day when one seed LSU takes on the eighth seeded Arkansas. LSU was too much for Arkansas from the beginning on both sides the ball. The running game, behind running back Michael Ford, and a smothering defense decided this game by halftime when LSU was up 35-10. Arkansas came out and scored 13 unanswered points in the second half and had an opportunity to score again with less than a minute in the game but Razorback quarterback, Tyler Wilson, threw an interception to seal the game for LSU, 35-23.

Player of the Game: LSU Running Back Michael Ford-19 carries, 172 yards and three touchdowns.


3:00 pm: Oregon vs. Alabama, Eugene, Oregon
Oregon-14
Alabama-16

This match-up pits the dominating defense of Alabama against the prolific offense of Oregon and neither team dominated the first half. Alabama did have the lead at halftime but was only up six points, 13-7. Oregon took a one point lead on a 85 yard run by De'Anthony Thomas with 2:35 left to get in the third quarter. Going into the fourth quarter that one point would still stand. With 3:51 left in the game Jeremy Shelley kicked a 38-yard feild goal to give Alabama the 16-14 lead. Oregon would start their final drive of the game with 1:56 left on the clock and the Ducks were putting together a solid drive until Darron Thomas threw an interception to Mark Barron that ended this tight game.

Player of the Game: Alabama Quarterback AJ McCarron- 11-17 passing, 209 yards and one touchdown.


6:00 pm: Oklahoma State vs. Stanford, Stillwater, Oklahoma
Oklahoma State-35
Stanford-31

As the sun began to set, we were hoping for things to continue to heat up as two prolific offenses stepped on the field in Stillwater. We didn't see quite the scoring output we wanted in the first half but the first half was tight and the teams were tied 14-14 at halftime. The second half would give us the scoring we wanted to see. Oklahoma State scored within 29 seconds of the third quarter and the scoring onslaught was on from there. By the end of the third quarter the game was tied 28-28. With 2:53 left in the game, Brandon Wheeden was picked off by Harold Bernard and gave Andrew Luck 1st and goal from the 7-yard line. Oklahoma State held tough and forced Stanford to kick a field goal giving Stanford the 31-28 lead with 2:08 remaining in the game. Less than a minute later Stanford had a chance to run out the clock but Andrew Luck threw an interception to Brodrick Brown and Oklahoma State took over first and goal on the 9-yard line. Three plays later Wheeden threw a touchdown pass to Tracy Moore with 34 seconds left in the game. The game would come down to a Hail Mary pass from Andrew Luck that was knocked down in the end zone.

Player of the Game: Oklahoma State Wide Receiver Justin Blackmon-5 receptions, 138 yards and three touchdowns.


9:00 pm: Wisconsin vs. Clemson, New Orleans, Louisiana
Wisconsin- 21
Clemson- 22

The last game of the day took place in New Orleans and the Clemson offense hoped to continue the party inside the stadium. Wisconsin, behind quarterback Russel Wilson and running Montee Ball, felt their offense could make some noise as well. Both offenses were able to move the ball extremely well in the first half but the Wisconsin defense was able to stop Clemson's offense in the red zone and force them to kick two field goals and only score one touchdown. Wisconsin's offense had no trouble in the red zone and they were able to punch the ball in three times and had a 21-13 lead going into halftime. The second half started with Clemson scoring on a 16-yard pass from Tajh Boyd to Deandre Hopkins but failed the  2-point conversion and heading into the fourth quarter they were down 21-19. With 2:57 Montee Ball fumbled the ball and Clemson recovered with great field position, starting their drive on the Wisconsin 25-yard line. They would only be able to come away with a field goal but it was enough to take a one point lead with 2:26 remaining in the game.  The ball would change hands two times after both teams were forced to punt and Wisconsin would start their final drive on their own 29-yard line with 48 seconds on the clock and no timeouts remaining. Wisconsin moved the ball well and were almost in field goal range when Mansa Joseph blitzed from corner position and forced a sack that allowed time to expire.

Player of the Game: Clemson Quarterback Tajh Boyd- 14-23 passing, 258 yards and two touchdowns.


The second round match-ups are LSU-Clemson and Oklahoma State-Alabama. Check in tomorrow for the second round of The Sports Party playoffs.