(Writer’s Note: Yes, this is the Contenders. Part II to last weeks ‘The Fakers’. However, we’ve thrown in Syracuse to illustrate their fate as well as the 5 we here at TheSportsParty consider this year’s true contending teams. In all, our Contenders plus Syracuse represent the ‘Select Six’ which will produce our next champion…Don’t doubt it!)
How goes it fellow bracket busters? As of yesterday, I’m sure you’re all in full-swing testing theory after theory about how to get this year’s bracket perfectly prophesized. We, here at TheSportsParty know your pain. But, if you need a little help in trying to figure out who will still be around to see the bright lights of New Orleans at the end of the month, here’s some food for thought…
However you fill out your brackets, it’s never a good idea to take too many chances with the select few that are to be expected to arrive at the Final Four. Therefore, it would probably be helpful to know which of those teams will have the hardest game-by-game challenge on their way throughout the first two weekends. In other words, between the teams considered favorites to win it all, who will face the hardest teams to get there? (With us those favorite teams are Syracuse, Kentucky, North Carolina, Michigan State, Kansas, and Ohio State…Take the field if you want against those 6, but I like my chances with these heavyweights.)
For those of you a little on the ‘outs’ of the sporting world, there are these incredibly specific, insanely accurate, and scientifically calibrated statistics organized into a ranking system known as the Pomeroy College Basketball Rankings. You can find these stats at Kenpom.com if you’re more interested, but we’re using them here because they are useful in measuring a team’s actual success and to project how good they will be in the future. I will let you figure out the system yourself at the Kenpom website, but for the purposes of this, just trust that it’s a little more detailed than the lousy RPI/SOS system most ESPN-ers live or die by.
To measure the possibility of success for our ‘Select Six’ through the NCAA tournament, we will take a simple Strength of Schedule for the most probable contenders each will face in their respective region…. Still following? You’ll figure it out as we go along. But sincerely, check out that website…. It’ll be help in itself to maneuver your bracket.
Lastly, I’m pretty confident in my bracket, as I’m sure we all are. Therefore, for the purposes of this, I’m sticking to the match-ups I have for each of these teams. No worries though, I’m pretty good at ranking strengths/weaknesses in teams, albeit random upsets that no one saw coming (VCU v. Butler, why???) are inevitable. Haha, told you…confident. But seriously, no worries. I rarely strayed from chalk in this one because of the precision of the committee this season. Other than Belmont over N.C. State to reach the Sweet 16, I didn’t see too many limbs to walk out on.
So, without further ado…
Select Six
Kentucky – Potential 3rd Round through Elite 8 match-ups: (35) UConn, (10) Wichita St., (17) Duke. = 62
…If you haven’t figured it out yet, 62 represents the opponents’ rankings combined. The team with the lowest ‘score’ should, by theory, have the toughest route, and the team with the highest…well, you know…
Michigan State – (15) St. Louis, (13) New Mexico, (8) Missouri = 36
Syracuse – (22) Kansas State, (6) Wisconsin, (2) Ohio State = 30
Ohio State – (42) West Virginia, (21) Florida State, (6) Wisconsin = 69
North Carolina – (34) Creighton, (25)Michigan, (4) Kansas = 63
Kansas – (43) St. Mary, (23) Belmont, (5) UNC = 71
*The Kenpom Rankings are indicated in parenthesis.
**Also, because each ‘Select Six’ is a 1 or 2 seed and emphatically expected to win their first NCAA tourney game, those games have been excluded. This is due to the skewing of our projections through low ranking teams like potential UK opponent (258) MVSU.
We’ll get to the analysis part in just a bit, but here’s our Final Four breakdown, as well. (With the next point in mind, these rankings are mere projections. Obviously, there is no possible way to predict how the tournament will endure when a random bounce of the ball can affect the entire tournament. C’mon people…Some of you still think Connecticut was the best team last year? Well, they were in the 30s last year around this time, if I remember correctly.) The Final Four we are going to use is the most likely in my superior opinion. My opinion is superior KU fans because (A) it is 1:00 in the morning, (B) I’m a realistic Carolina fan who watched you struggle against Duke but respect the success you’ve had since, (even have a little money on them to win it all if my Heels can’t…and…fell in love with Robinson back in December), and (C)…o everyone… it’s my forum… Do the work for your team on your own, if you think they’ve got a shot at the title….Sorry lent-observers, Notre Dame ain’t making it out of the week. But, I’ll run through each scenario with each team facing the opponents I see to be in there way, granting the make the Final Four…
…keeping up? Here we go…
Final Four
(1) Kentucky – (3) Michigan State, (5) North Carolina = 8 + 62 = 70
(3) Michigan State – (1) Kentucky, (5) North Carolina = 6 + 36 = 42
(7) Syracuse – (5) North Carolina (1) Kentucky = 6 +30 = 36
(2) Ohio State – (5) North Carolina, (1) Kentucky = 6 + 69 = 75
(5) North Carolina- (2) Ohio State, (1) Kentucky = 3 + 63 = 76
(4) Kansas – (2) Ohio State, (1) Kentucky = 3 + 71 = 74
Again, let me emphasize the discrepancies among the top contenders. Some may say, how does OSU beat out a 1-loss Syracuse, so enthusiastically? Remember, a couple of influential variables in the Kenpom system are things like, conference strength, or margin of victory. So, a conference like the Big 12 gets a lot of credit because of the strength of its teams…I’m a big believer in the undervalue of the ACC, but I digress to my point to why there is little difference, if any between #10 and #11 or #34 and #35, etc. So, what can we take away from this?
Team-By-Team:
Syracuse/Ohio State – Syracuse is out. Not a chance for the Orange. Boeheim’s problems got worse yesterday when he found out he had to battle the scrappy badgers in the Sweet 16 just to meet up with their Achilles heel…Sulliger’s ability to dominate the 15 athletes Boeheim’s zone can throw at him. Don’t bet on the Orange. I’ve got them falling to Wisconsin. This is the toughest road to the Final Four, by far. Ohio State will walk to the Elite 8. Florida State is a great team. But Florida State is a great team because of how well they match up with 2 other great teams, Duke and UNC. Ultimately, the Heels and Devils are a both more valid contenders to go deep. But yeah, FSU has both’s number this year. FSU is streaky and they won’t be able to guard Sullinger and Craft after a week to prepare for both squads. Funny thing about preparing for that week. The scouting report OSU does on FSU and Wisconsin will have a lot of similarities. FSU is defense. Wisconsin is hustle. Defense is hustle. But hustle can't outscore Sullinger and Craft. Don't sleep on OSU. They struggled once or twice in the regular season, but they never fell far from the top ranks for a reason. They'll coral themselves and make yet another Final 4.
Michigan State – All in all, Don’t go against Sparty. Maybe it’s a pick based on intangibles, but when it comes to March, Izzo is completely tangible. And he’s the best reason the Spartans will ultimately make the Final Four to represent the West. Yes, they are facing the second toughest test, scoring a 36. St. Louis will stir the pot off the bat, but fall short. New Mexico will disturb the apple cart, but the guys in green will endure. And finally, Missouri will try to outplay them, but just like OSU and Syracuse, the Spartans ability to move the ball inside to Green, outside to Green, off the backboard to Green, will lead them to victory against Frank Haith, who's still a little wet behind the ears. Missouri will have their hands full as a high percentage field goal team going up against one of the most efficient defenses and rebounding teams in the country. Then, once they arrive in New Orleans, the Spartans will fall to Kentucky, I feel. But, I battled myself with whether or not they would fall to the Heels, instead. ’09 repeat just doesn’t seem like a future headliner to me?
Kentucky – With respect to the NCAA committee and Wichita St., Kentucky has got to feel the best about its chances making their way to The Big Easy. Connecticut is about as talented as they were last year, minus a Kemba Walker figure. Wichita St. is the only team that will present a threat to the Wildcats. They’re good people. I’m serious! But, with the ability to dominate with Anthony Davis, I think the game against Duke and Wichita St. will be fairly similar games with a closer score coming in the Sweet Sixteen. I know you’ve heard the Shallow-end-of-the-pool analysis by ESPN, but this region isn’t so tough. But, when the Wildcats meet a tough opponent in Michigan State, trouble could arise for the Wildcats. I think they’ve made more improvements than UNC since the last time these two teams met, but UNC is playing pretty strong since the loss to Duke. With FSU out of the way, I think the Tar Heels find themselves facing the Wildcats in the only game in April. Roy Williams is the best in the business at getting his crew ready to play ball in March when the talent is in place, and I think the team Kentucky might see in April will be pretty fluid compared to the ACC finals Tarheels. What a great game on the horizon!!
North Carolina/Kansas – You may be asking yourself, “Didn’t he just discuss the Tarheels’ chances?" Well, yeah…but through the eyes of Kentucky. Looking at the run both UNC and Kansas must make before finding each other, there seem to be no major problems. Carolina will need to compete to get by Creighton and Michigan, but they shouldn’t have to put too much effort into a win. (Based on their capabilities, of course!) With Kansas, things are looking the same. St. Mary shouldn’t be a problem. And the Georgetown/Belmont game should be a coin flip with Belmont giving Georgetown match-up problems. Then again, this is the mid-major I’m riding a bit in this tournament…Regardless, NC State will run out of gas against the winner of the Belmont/Georgetown game, and that team will subsequently run out of gas against Kansas. The most interesting game of the region will take place against Roy Williams’ former Jayhawks and current Tarheels, which will be duly publicized. This one will be in St. Louis, which is just a smidge closer to Lawrence than Chapel Hill…But, I’m telling you. As someone who's seen it happen twice, close up. After a loss in the ACC tournament, no one in the country practices harder and then plays better than a Williams-coached UNC team. Don't think so? Georgia Tech beat UNC in '05 and those stingy 'Noles did it in '09. Ask Michigan State how fun that championship game was. To be completely honest, with the potential freight liner fueling up in Chapel Hill today, the ‘Hawks may end up being a 10 point dog by the time that match-up comes about. Carolina moves on past the toughest challenge they’ll have to face in the Midwest region. From here, it only gets tougher for the Heels or Hawks, whomever makes it. Like I said, there is little difference among the best 5 teams, according to Kenpom rankings, die to minute differences within, perhaps the conference they competed in, or a margin of victory issue. The Tarheels, being my favorite in the game against KU will take the hardest road to cutting down the nets in New Orleans. They'll face (2)Ohio State only to meet the odds on favorite Wildcats of (1)Kentucky. Against OSU, talent level will present an problem for the Buckeyes if Thad Matta isn’t already the issue compromising OSU’s fate to a superior final four artist in Roy Williams.
Then, the Battle of the Blues in the land of Jazz and Blues will end the year on a high-note for the NCAA. Trust me, from a basketball history perspective, you can't argue they didn't try to set up this match-up. Not only that, I have 4 historic NCAA rivalry games scheduled on my bracket: Duke-Kentucky, 1992 Elite 8; UNC-Michigan, 1993 National Championship; UNC-Kansas, 1957 National Championship, UNC-MSU/UK, 2009 National Championship/Dean Smith's 879-Final Four...There is also potential for Michigan State-Florida, UNC-Georgetown, and Duke-UNLV to reignite their national championship rematches, this year. Don’t be surprised if the sky tears open on April 2nd, if the highly anticipated Heels and Wildcats meet up. The committee truly did a great job on setting up this blockbuster matchup. I'm taking the Heels in mine, but I wouldn't blame you for backing Calipari this year. Enjoy the bracket busting, Sports Fans!
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