Saban's Fatal Flaw

Punishing defense, powerful running backs, strong offensive lines. These are all staples of a Nick Saban team. Teams covet the types of players Saban brings to his program and how he prepares them for the NFL. Often times his preparation of their talents is what brings the best to his campus... I mean, the only legal thing the University of Alabama is willing to talk about. It is the SEC after all.

On the other hand, a lot can be known about a team or program based on what it is not known for. Never has a nick Saban team been known for a great quarterback or even great quarterback play. Nick Saban's fatal flaw is his lack of a quarterback who can make plays to win him the game.

That last statement should not be controversial at all. No one would say or think that Alabama, over the last 3 years (can't count year one) has used his quarterback to win him games. Saban would rather control the game clock and flow of the game by using his running backs and his defense. It shortens the game and allows for less errors. It is not a bad style of coaching. In fact, Saban's process of mastery and execution based performance is so successful that it is mimicked across the country.

Anyone who has breathed the same air on a coaching staff with Saban will be hired before someone who hasn't. Ok, that's hyperbole, but there are a number of people across the NCAA landscape who have reached HC status because of their time on a Saban staff, whether it is earned through their own success or success by association.

However, Saban's style of coaching has a fatal flaw. Saban teams will struggle when they must throw the ball to gain an advantage. Granted he stacks the deck in his favor by recruiting and developing a massive offensive line and incredibly big and fast running backs. Nonetheless, the most important person on the field will never be the quarterback. His quarterbacks will be nothing more than game managers with high completion percentages from safe passes and safe play actions on 1st down after the run has been established. That is a fatal flaw and one that has and will cost Saban a few SEC/National titles.

In my LSU/Bama preview quad-podcast I predicted UA to take care of business because I said those two teams are nearly equal except AJ McCarron will make plays when he has to. Certainly, McCarron was overwhelmed by the insanely good LSU defense, but Jared Jefferson wasn't overwhelmed by the Bama defense. Jefferson was the type of X factor behind center that Saban doesn't have.

No one would say Jefferson was a great QB in the classic sense of the word. He is not a pocket passer nor does he direct an offense like Landry Jones does, but he can make plays with his legs, something the college QB must do for their team to be a title contender.

I think the big question is if Saban can recruit so well, how come he hasn't recruited a nasty QB who can sling it or at the very least be a bruising runner like he demands from his other offensive backs? I think it is because Saban likes a "game manager". Plus, and this is the most important aspect, no self respecting high quality high school quarterback will go to a Saban led team because that QB will never be a premiere player. When offenses like OU, OKST, Stanford, and Clemson are rewarding quarterbacks for being mobile, pro style, or balanced between the two why would anyone go to a program where they will not develop let alone become a household name?

In 2010, Greg McElroy ranked 67th in Pass Attempts with 313 attempts. John Brandtley had more attempts than McElroy. 34 of those QB's ranked were on AQ teams. This year AJ McCarron, a quarterback who I like and thought could be their playmaker attemped 294 passes in one less game than McElroy did in 2010. I thought this year McCarron might bring another angle to the Bama offense, but in the cookie cutter offense Saban uses year after year, it is run first and pass second; manage the game with defense and clock.


There is nothing wrong with that, but a good HS quarterback will not be attracted to it, and eventually (cough, 2010 season, cough this season) not having a stand out QB will hurt your ability to win champtionships or beat rivals. That's just how it is in the NCAA, unless you want to put it all on an incredible pro laden defense a la LSU 2011.


A look at some key stats highlights the fact that Saban will not feature or be able to develop a game changing quarterback, even to his detriment. This year Bama ran the ball 473 times compared to 294 passes by McCarron. I subtracted the number of times Bama ran it 170 times when up by more than two TD's considering garbage time and clock killing and end up with 303. A few other stats to bolster the trend is when the Tide faced 3rd down and 9 or less they ran it 50 times vs 63 pass attempts. Naturally the numbers showing running on third and short are inverse to third and long and vice versa.


But the killing stat to me that shows Saban's reluctance to put the game in a quarterback's hands is the Red Zone numbers. Bama passed the ball 44 times in the Red Zone this year but ran it 111 times. Certainly a team needs to get a push when near the goal line, and with a back like Richardson it would be stupid to not hand him the ball, this points to the bigger issue that Richardson is their only option. It is no secret the Tide feature a killer running game, but through the course of a program, when an entire position is neglected attrition will be caused from the recruiting aspect.

I love the process. I think the process is how a coach gets players to be great and great players make great teams. But Saban can recruit all he wants, until he features an offense that uses a QB more than he does Alabama will fail to be successful in the dog eat dog SEC where the best player on the field needs to be under center. No wonder Jameis Winston does not want to go to the University in his back yard.