Here we are. Basketball season is a couple weeks underway and though the landscape in April will be vastly different from the landscape we have now, several are indicating two teams are the head and shoulders favorites to make their way through the NCAA this season: UNC and Kentucky. With a match-up between the two coming up in a couple of weeks in Rupp Arena, we are left to ask ourselves this hypothetical question: If these two teams prove to be the best two teams at the end of the year, who takes the crown in New Orleans? Past history would suggest the Tarheels are extremely able to win a National Title in the state of Louisiana; they’ve won 2 of their 5 NCAA tournaments in the Superdome. But if Kentucky stands in their way in a National Championship setting, I believe history will be challenged.
The Tarheels have 10 players on their roster this year that could start for many teams around the country and will ultimately contribute, each in their independent way, to the Tarheels success this season. That’s 2 full teams! The last time they were this deep was 2009 and that year they unloaded a mass of fury against the field of 65, winning the NCAA championship by 20 points per game. Not only are they similar to the 2009 team in depth, they have some of the best talent throughout the country at each individual position. Harrison Barnes has athletic ability that could rival that of Michael Jordan; Kendall Marshall delivers a pass almost as elegantly as Jason Kidd; and the length of John Henson helps him to have a shot-blocking ability that resembles something of an overly thin collegiate Shaquille O’Neal. So, what’s the problem with that?
Mostly inexperience. But even that won’t be the Achilles ‘Heel’ this season. If there are two coaches in the league that have the coaching ability to expose his players’ talents in the small window of 1 season, those guys are Roy Williams and John Calipari. Perhaps, Calipari more than Williams only because the majority of his teams have been mosaics of the best freshmen in the country. It’s what he does: take in fresh young talent, get the most out of their ability in just a single season, and turn them loose on the NBA Draft. Roy Williams is usually a little luckier and this year is no exception. Williams has the luxury of harnessing talent and bringing the best of those talents to the surface over a longer period of time, as many of his players prefer to see their junior year, at least. But, if you remember Harrison Barnes and Kendall Marshall last year as well as Tyler Hansbrough, Ed Davis, and Brandan Wright of previous years, Williams is able to do the same thing as Calipari in the same amount of time. But, Roy doesn’t need to worry about that too much this year. Other than the inevitable assistance at the three-point line from freshman P.J. Hairston, the majority of Williams’ talent comes from his returning all-stars.
But, lets be fair. It’s true that the Tarheels have a wealth of talent, however their skill set may only be outmatched by Kentucky. Though the Wildcats may not be as deep, they have 6 or 7 players that they can go to, 5 of which are future NBA first rounders. The interesting thing that this Kentucky team has that most Calipari teams don’t is two really talented and dominant sophmores; Terrance Jones and Doron Lamb have done this with Calipari before, and the last time they did this, they were one game away from facing 1-of-2 cupcake mid-majors for the championship. (I’m only stressing their ineptness as teams within a conference because the majority of people who read this actually thought the national champion could come from that side of the bracket last year) This year, Calipari will be much more contentious for something that he was already just outside the hunt for last season. The only difference from his usual freshman dominated teams comes from the small amount of experience the two sophomores possess that should propel the Wildcats into a national championship game. And, though I really don’t mean to oversell the talent Kentucky has, I have to suggest that there has yet to be a player as dominant as Terrence Jones on a Calipari team, other than Derrick Rose. He’s aggressive, imposing, and relentless. Thing that, I feel, will be the general theme in a neutral-court scenario between the ‘Cats and the ‘Heels.
So, the coaching is there along with the talent. This is all too obvious. As well, it is all too obvious why everyone is jumping on these two bandwagons for a championship. So, who wins the hypothetical game in New Orleans? Well, the early season game between the two should be an indicator of what will be if this happened down the road. Both of these teams are sure to be much better in the months of March and April than they will in December. However, on a neutral court setting, though the Heels can win a game of endurance, the physical play of the Tarheels will lead to their ultimate downfall. There are two schemes by which this game will ultimately be played: either face paced or half-court. Kentucky will have the speed to run with the Heels, who are known for their Williams run-and-gun style. Also, Calipari doesn’t seem like the person to back down from a challenge to let his guys run with UNC. But they won’t win that way. Terrence Jones is a big, dominating presence, but in an open-court track meet, my edge goes to the Heels. Tyler Zeller’s uncanny ability to beat opposing guards to the other end of the court, along with the other 4’s baptism into the style over the past 2 season AND the second string of all-stars will give them the edge in a 60-minute endurance test.
No, this game will be played in the half-court. And rightfully so. My perception of the Tarheels comes up a little short when comparing their defensive ability to that of 2009. Roy Williams’ fast paced style is extremely effective, but it needs defensive takeaways to feed it. And (though he had 6 steals in the game against South Carolina, proving he has developed somewhat defensively over the off-season) I don’t think Kendall Marshall will be going for 8 steals in the national championship game the way Ty Lawson did against Michigan St. Nor do I think Kentucky’s talented young guys will be as willing to turn the ball over. Therefore, this game must be played inside 45 feet.
So what? Why cant UNC,… with 10 deep, the most outstanding front court in the country, and the increasing ability to shoot the three that you’ll see as the year progresses,… why cant they beat Kentucky in the halfcourt? It’s simply: physicality. Just look at the size of Zeller and Henson compared to Terrance Jones. He uses his body to make the big play. UNC’s big bodies are pretty small other than James McAdoo, who could, I’ll grant you, potentially influence the outcome of this match-up. But that isn’t why the physicality will be the issue; as I said, the Tarheels will have talent on the inside and out to be able to score. No, no, no, it isn’t about scoring. Actually it has more to do with who controls the game.
Both of these teams will be at their best on April 3rd of the coming year, if they truly are to meet. And even though Williams can go 10 deep, you can only have 5 on the court at one time….
…Aye, there’s the rub. It would be more beneficial all around if the Heels were able to run like they’d want, but with 5 on 5 in the halfcourt, the Tarheels will definitely be out-matched from a talent perspective, as long as Calipari can put 5 desirable guys on the floor. The only way the Heels or anyone playing the Wildcats late in the season will be able to expose the weakness Kentucky has in their youth is to dominate the Cats to a point where the team sinks back into their freshman selves.
That’s it. That’s all I’m saying. A matured Kentucky offense will only lose games if they are intimidated by an opposing team. Intimidated to the point that they relapse into their comfortable style of play, which ultimately leads to dysfunction and disorganization associated with freshman play on the collegiate level.
Maybe a final four match-up with Connecticut or Ohio State could expose this weakness, but for this edition of The State of Play we’re talking UNC-UK final game (Which, if you've ever watched an NCAA tournament, you understand, regardless who the two best teams are, facing each other in the end is highly improbable). With that, the Tarheels are simply too passive. Throughout the year, Roy Williams will focus much more time on the usefulness of the outlet pass, rather than physical dominance. And rightfully so, this team can be extremely successful using that strategy. But, against the more superior 5-on-5 talent Kentucky possesses, along with the size of Terrence Jones, the Tarheels will be outmatched physically against a team that will exert their will in a neutral court scenario.
No, my guess is this UNC team’s path through the NCAA tournament will resemble UNC’s 2008 run. They’ll fall short if they are to play the Wildcats in April. And, if there’s a God, the NBA will be locked-out next year and Barnes and Henson will come back to help cut down the nets next season (Note: The NBA has developed a tentative agreement between the writing of this article and it's posting; there's still no assurance that there will be a 'next season' in the NBA, however). But, I guess we’ll just have to see…
So, for some reason, it's really tough to have a consistent indent on these blog posts...'My Bad'...
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